Medicare Advantage (MA) has always been a highly competitive market, but with the expanded open enrollment period, an increase in highly rated plans, and an explosion of shopper tools, member satisfaction and retention has never been more challenging.

The Growing Problem of Member Churn

In the past decade, the average rate of member churn jumped from 8% to nearly 12%, and it’s expected to increase further in 2020 and beyond.1

Today, it’s easier than ever for members to shop for (and switch to) a different plan. In August 2018, just 25% of seniors were aware of the open enrollment period (OEP). By April 2019, 66% of seniors were aware of the OEP, and they now have a full three months to make a switch.2

Members also have more choices with every passing year. In the 2020 plan year, 3,148 MA plans will be available for individual enrollment—414 more than 2019.3

The Financial Impact of Member Churn

The cost of churn for health plans can be significant, totaling hundreds of millions of dollars in lost revenue and increased costs. A plan with 75,000 members and 14% churn, for example, stands to lose nearly half a billion dollars in revenue and $71 million in projected gross profit.In today’s market when every dollar matters, plans can’t afford to watch millions walk out the door.

But addressing churn can be challenging because members leave for a variety of reasons, and efforts to retain them can be costly—especially when plans apply those efforts to all members.

It’s also important to remember that some members are more likely to churn than others. Based on Icario’s propensity-to-churn modeling, we tend to find that members in the top four deciles (40% of membership) represent 56% of the overall churn risk to a plan. If your member retention efforts aren’t specifically focusing on the members most likely to leave, you could be missing a big opportunity.

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Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Member Satisfaction and Reduce Churn

Most MA plans accept churn as an unavoidable reality, but here’s the thing: you don’t have to! Icario’s Member Retention Solution uses our proprietary propensity-to-churn model to helps plans identify the members most likely to leave. We then recognize those members for the care gaps they close and engage them in other high-value activities, improving their connection with the plan and increasing the chances they stay.

Unlike one-size-fits-all approaches, Icario identifies the members most likely to churn and delivers a personalized engagement experience designed to retain them.